The COVID-19 pandemic: broad partnerships for the rapid scale up of innovative virtual approaches for capacity building and credible information dissemination in Africa.

The Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has rapidly spread in Africa, with a total of 474,592 confirmed cases by 11th July 2020. Consequently, all policy makers and health workers urgently need to be trained and to access the most credible information to contain and mitigate its impact. While the need for rapid training and information dissemination has increased, most of Africa is implementing public health social and physical distancing measures. Responding to this context requires broad partnerships and innovative virtual approaches to disseminate new insights, share best practices, and create networked communities of practice for all teach, and all learn. The World Health Organization (WHO)-Africa region, in collaboration with the Extension for Community Health Outcome (ECHO) Institute at the University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center (UNM HSC), the West Africa college of nurses and the East Central and Southern Africa college of physicians, private professional associations, academia and other partners has embarked on a virtual training programme to support the containment of COVID-19. Between 1st April 2020 and 10th July 2020, about 7,500 diverse health professionals from 172 locations in 58 countries were trained in 15 sessions. Participants were from diverse institutions including: central ministries of health, WHO country offices, provincial and district hospitals and private medical practitioners. A range of critical COVID-19 preparedness and response interventions have been reviewed and discussed. There is a high demand for credible information from credible sources about COVID-19. To mitigate the "epidemic of misinformation" partnerships for virtual trainings and information dissemination leveraging existing learning platforms and networks across Africa will augment preparedness and response to COVID-19.

The potential effects of widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the World Health Organization African Region: a predictive model.

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been unprecedented in its speed and effects. Interruption of its transmission to prevent widespread community transmission is critical because its effects go beyond the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths and affect the health system capacity to provide other essential services. Highlighting the implications of such a situation, the predictions presented here are derived using a Markov chain model, with the transition states and country specific probabilities derived based on currently available knowledge. A risk of exposure, and vulnerability index are used to make the probabilities country specific. The results predict a high risk of exposure in states of small size, together with Algeria, South Africa and Cameroon. Nigeria will have the largest number of infections, followed by Algeria and South Africa. Mauritania would have the fewest cases, followed by Seychelles and Eritrea. Per capita, Mauritius, Seychelles and Equatorial Guinea would have the highest proportion of their population affected, while Niger, Mauritania and Chad would have the lowest. Of the World Health Organization's 1 billion population in Africa, 22% (16%-26%) will be infected in the first year, with 37 (29 - 44) million symptomatic cases and 150 078 (82 735-189 579) deaths. There will be an estimated 4.6 (3.6-5.5) million COVID-19 hospitalisations, of which 139 521 (81 876-167 044) would be severe cases requiring oxygen, and 89 043 (52 253-106 599) critical cases requiring breathing support. The needed mitigation measures would significantly strain health system capacities, particularly for secondary and tertiary services, while many cases may pass undetected in primary care facilities due to weak diagnostic capacity and non-specific symptoms. The effect of avoiding widespread and sustained community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is significant, and most likely outweighs any costs of preventing such a scenario. Effective containment measures should be promoted in all countries to best manage the COVID-19 pandemic.